AVERT Physical Security - A Department of Defense's Small Business Innovation Research Success Story

Picture the following scenario: A guard at a nuclear site is notified through his AVERT software of an unidentified man approaching the front gate. He appears to be carrying a weapon. The guard has a few choices. Does he confront the man, shoot at him, or notify other officers who may have quicker access? How fast would the guard need to run in order to get close to the man? And if he shoots, what happens if he misses? This would be a random event that could send the trajectory of his choices in a new direction. Does the man fire back? That’s another trajectory. What is the guard’s skill level? Is the intruder acting alone or are others lurking?

All of these questions and thousands more have been entered into algorithms that use random number (Monte Carlo) simulation to calculate the probability of security system effectiveness, or “the probability of defending your site,” according to Christopher Guryan, chief scientist for ARES Corporation and the main brain behind AVERT (Automated Vulnerability Evaluation for Risks of Terrorism) software.